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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marcus McGhee won · Decision R3

Elo1528

Elo1491

Marcus McGheevsJohn YannisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Saturday, June 6, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Marcus McGhee won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: John Yannis

Style matchupMarcus McGhee: Pressure fightervsJohn Yannis: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Marcus McGhee wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Marcus McGhee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Yannis has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Marcus McGhee has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcus McGhee

Red Corner

John Yannis

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1528

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcus McGhee

oldest →

SUBvs Journey Newson · Apr 23

KOvs JP Buys · Aug 23

KOvs Gaston Bolanos · Jan 24

vs Jonathan Martinez · Nov 24

vs Petr Yan · Jul 25

latest

John Yannis

oldest →

SUBvs Austin Bashi · Aug 25

KOvs Jamie Siraj · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcus McGheeMetricJohn Yannis

5.50

Strikes / min

3.30

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

1.26

57%

Strike defense

74%

0.31

TDs / 15 min

0.00

90%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.86evenly matched on net striking+2.04

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcus McGhee(6 fights)John Yannis(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.0|Blue -37.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcus McGheeTargetJohn Yannis

By target zone

35% acc · 76%

Head

35% acc · 49%

59% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 36%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 98%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcus McGhee rounds

even

John Yannis rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcus McGhee edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marcus McGhee edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 202

Sig Strikes

55 / 115

38.3%

Sig Str %

46%

79 / 202

Total Strikes

55 / 115

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Yannis	13 / 40	13 / 40	0 / 0
1	Marcus McGhee	14 / 51	14 / 51	0 / 0
2	John Yannis	30 / 45	30 / 45	0 / 0
2	Marcus McGhee	35 / 93	35 / 93	0 / 0
3	John Yannis	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 0
3	Marcus McGhee	30 / 58	30 / 58	0 / 2

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 47% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Marcus McGhee

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7

John Yannis

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3