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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Marcus McGhee won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1528
Marcus McGhee
Elo1516
Gaston Bolanos

Marcus McGheevsGaston BolanosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcus McGhee won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:29

Model Prediction: Marcus McGhee wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Marcus McGhee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcus McGhee at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marcus McGhee has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcus McGhee
Red Corner
VS
Gaston Bolanos
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1528
Elo
1516
36
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcus McGhee
oldest →
W
SUBvs Journey Newson · Apr 23
W
KOvs JP Buys · Aug 23
W
vs Jonathan Martinez · Nov 24
L
vs Petr Yan · Jul 25
W
DECvs John Yannis · Jun 26
latest
Gaston Bolanos
oldest →
W
vs Aaron Phillips · Apr 23
W
vs Cortavious Romious · Nov 24
L
SUBvs Quang Le · May 25
W
DECvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcus McGheeMetricGaston Bolanos
5.50
Strikes / min
3.28
3.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.40
57%
Strike defense
50%
0.31
TDs / 15 min
0.66
90%
Takedown defense
42%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.86evenly matched on net striking+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1529 vs 1514Strikes5.4 vs 3.9Takedowns0.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.9
Marcus McGheeGaston Bolanos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Marcus McGhee(6 fights)Gaston Bolanos(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +12.0|Blue -12.0
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcus McGheeTargetGaston Bolanos

By target zone

57
50% acc · 88%
Head
14
25% acc · 50%
7
88% acc · 11%
Body
7
50% acc · 25%
1
100% acc · 2%
Leg
7
70% acc · 25%

By position

52
48% acc · 80%
Distance
28
35% acc · 100%
3
75% acc · 5%
Clinch
0
10
91% acc · 15%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Marcus McGhee rounds
0
even
0
Gaston Bolanos rounds
Round 1Marcus McGhee edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns1
Control1:47
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 2Marcus McGhee edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
65 / 123
Sig Strikes
28 / 81
53%
Sig Str %
34%
74 / 134
Total Strikes
28 / 82
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
33%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:47
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gaston Bolanos14 / 3814 / 390 / 00
1Marcus McGhee35 / 5844 / 691 / 30
2Gaston Bolanos14 / 4314 / 430 / 00
2Marcus McGhee30 / 6530 / 650 / 00

Marcus McGhee

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7

Gaston Bolanos

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5