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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Abel Trujillo won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1490
Elo1363
Abel Trujillo

Marcus LeVesseurvsAbel TrujilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Abel Trujillo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:56

Style matchupMarcus LeVesseur: WrestlervsAbel Trujillo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Marcus LeVesseur wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Abel Trujillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcus LeVesseur at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Abel Trujillo is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Marcus LeVesseur has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Abel Trujillo has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Marcus LeVesseur has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Marcus LeVesseur (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marcus LeVesseur
Red Corner
VS
Abel Trujillo
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1490
Elo
1363
44
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcus LeVesseur
oldest →
L
SUBvs Cody McKenzie · May 12
W
vs Carlo Prater · Oct 12
latest
Abel TrujilloL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15
W
SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16
W
vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16
L
SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17
L
vs John Makdessi · Dec 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcus LeVesseurMetricAbel Trujillo
2.55
Strikes / min
2.65
3.70
Strikes absorbed / min
2.31
37%
Strike defense
59%
3.89
TDs / 15 min
2.18
83%
Takedown defense
40%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.15Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes30.0 vs —Takedowns2.5 vs —Sub Atts0.50 vs —Form0.2 vs 0.0
Marcus LeVesseurAbel Trujillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Marcus LeVesseur(3 fights)Abel Trujillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +127.1|Blue -127.1
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcus LeVesseurTargetAbel Trujillo

By target zone

3
43% acc · 33%
Head
22
61% acc · 39%
1
100% acc · 11%
Body
28
88% acc · 49%
5
63% acc · 56%
Leg
7
100% acc · 12%

By position

3
50% acc · 33%
Distance
1
10% acc · 2%
6
60% acc · 67%
Clinch
28
85% acc · 49%
0
Ground
28
88% acc · 49%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marcus LeVesseur rounds
0
even
2
Abel Trujillo rounds
Round 1Abel Trujillo edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control3:50
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 2Abel Trujillo edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:17
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:35Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
9 / 16
Sig Strikes
57 / 75
55%
Sig Str %
74.5%
11 / 19
Total Strikes
94 / 117
2 / 10
TDs
1 / 1
11%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
4:07
Ctrl Time
3:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Abel Trujillo34 / 4167 / 760 / 00
1Marcus LeVesseur6 / 107 / 122 / 90
2Abel Trujillo23 / 3427 / 411 / 12
2Marcus LeVesseur3 / 64 / 70 / 10

Marcus LeVesseur

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10