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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Marcus Davis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1351

Elo1490

Marcus DavisvsJonathan GouletUFC Prediction Result

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · Saturday, May 8, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Marcus Davis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:23

Style matchupMarcus Davis: Submission grapplervsJonathan Goulet: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Marcus Davis wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Marcus Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcus Davis at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcus Davis has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Marcus Davis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marcus Davis

Red Corner

Jonathan Goulet

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+350

(22%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcus DavisL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Aug 10

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Jan 11

latest

Jonathan GouletNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcus DavisMetricJonathan Goulet

2.72

Strikes / min

1.61

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.01

65%

Strike defense

46%

1.60

TDs / 15 min

4.17

47%

Takedown defense

45%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcus DavisJonathan Goulet

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcus Davis(3 fights)Jonathan Goulet(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.2|Blue +139.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcus DavisTargetJonathan Goulet

By target zone

64% acc · 82%

Head

33% acc · 100%

67% acc · 18%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

45% acc · 45%

Distance

25% acc · 20%

100% acc · 27%

Clinch

100% acc · 27%

Ground

33% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcus Davis rounds

even

Jonathan Goulet rounds

Round 1Jonathan Goulet edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:24Control

Round 2Marcus Davis edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns2

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 17

Sig Strikes

5 / 16

66.5%

Sig Str %

31%

16 / 22

Total Strikes

19 / 30

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 5

—

TD %

80%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jonathan Goulet	5 / 16	19 / 30	4 / 5	0
1	Marcus Davis	3 / 9	4 / 10	0 / 0	1
2	Jonathan Goulet	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
2	Marcus Davis	8 / 8	12 / 12	0 / 0	0

Marcus Davis

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Jonathan Goulet

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights1