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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Spann won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1462
Marcus Buchecha
Elo1519

Marcus BuchechavsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Saturday, April 25, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:10

Style matchupMarcus Buchecha: WrestlervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ryan Spann has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcus Buchecha
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Spann
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1462
Elo
1519
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'5"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcus Buchecha
oldest →
L
vs Martin Buday · Jul 25
D
vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 25
latest
Ryan Spann
oldest →
L
vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23
L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcus BuchechaMetricRyan Spann
1.59
Strikes / min
3.11
2.15
Strikes absorbed / min
3.92
50%
Strike defense
43%
2.02
TDs / 15 min
1.21
0%
Takedown defense
59%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.81
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501470149015101530← oldermost recent →
Marcus Buchecha(3 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -56.8|Blue +56.8
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Marcus Buchecha

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17