Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Garbrandt won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1355

Elo1487

Marcus BrimagevsCody GarbrandtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Garbrandt won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:50

Style matchupMarcus Brimage: Well-roundedvsCody Garbrandt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marcus Brimage wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Cody Garbrandt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcus Brimage at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Garbrandt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Marcus Brimage has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Marcus Brimage (53.5%).
Marcus Brimage has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcus Brimage

Red Corner

Cody Garbrandt

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1355

Elo

1487

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcus Brimage

oldest →

vs Jimy Hettes · Sep 12

KOvs Conor McGregor · Apr 13

vs Russell Doane · Jul 14

KOvs Jumabieke Tuerxun · Nov 14

KOvs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 15

latest

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcus BrimageMetricCody Garbrandt

3.97

Strikes / min

2.79

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

56%

Strike defense

58%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.85

80%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcus BrimageCody Garbrandt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcus Brimage(8 fights)Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.3|Blue +132.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -46.6|Blue +46.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcus BrimageTargetCody Garbrandt

By target zone

24% acc · 56%

Head

34% acc · 86%

48% acc · 26%

Body

63% acc · 10%

89% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

33% acc · 98%

Distance

36% acc · 92%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

57% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcus Brimage rounds

even

Cody Garbrandt rounds

Round 1Cody Garbrandt edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Marcus Brimage edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cody Garbrandt edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:17

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 132

Sig Strikes

49 / 134

32%

Sig Str %

35.3%

48 / 137

Total Strikes

50 / 135

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cody Garbrandt	11 / 35	12 / 36	1 / 1
1	Marcus Brimage	9 / 32	9 / 32	0 / 0
2	Cody Garbrandt	14 / 46	14 / 46	0 / 1
2	Marcus Brimage	18 / 56	18 / 56	0 / 0
3	Cody Garbrandt	24 / 53	24 / 53	0 / 1
3	Marcus Brimage	16 / 44	21 / 49	0 / 0

Marcus Brimage

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18