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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Marcos Vinicius won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

Marcos ViniciusvsWagner CamposUFC Prediction Result

UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 · Saturday, June 23, 2012Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Marcos Vinicius won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:04

Model Prediction: Marcos Vinicius wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Marcos Vinicius wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Vinicius at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcos Vinicius has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Wagner Campos (53.5%).
Marcos Vinicius has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcos Vinicius

Red Corner

Wagner Campos

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

168 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcos ViniciusL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Bedford · Dec 12

KOvs Ali Bagautinov · Sep 13

latest

Wagner CamposNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcos ViniciusMetricWagner Campos

1.93

Strikes / min

1.54

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

47%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.71

25%

Takedown defense

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.99

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcos Vinicius(3 fights)Wagner Campos(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.8|Blue +137.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcos ViniciusTargetWagner Campos

By target zone

43% acc · 71%

Head

20% acc · 29%

86% acc · 21%

Body

57% acc · 24%

40% acc · 7%

Leg

89% acc · 47%

By position

46% acc · 75%

Distance

52% acc · 100%

86% acc · 21%

Clinch

0% acc

20% acc · 4%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcos Vinicius rounds

even

Wagner Campos rounds

Round 1Wagner Campos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:32Control

Round 2Wagner Campos edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:59Control

Round 3Marcos Vinicius edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 58

Sig Strikes

17 / 41

44%

Sig Str %

34.7%

46 / 79

Total Strikes

58 / 97

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

6:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Wagner Campos	13 / 28	39 / 66	2 / 2
1	Marcos Vinicius	6 / 20	15 / 30	0 / 0
2	Wagner Campos	3 / 7	18 / 25	0 / 0
2	Marcos Vinicius	4 / 12	13 / 23	0 / 0
3	Wagner Campos	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0
3	Marcos Vinicius	18 / 26	18 / 26	0 / 0

Marcos Vinicius

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Wagner Campos

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach—

Fights1