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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ali Bagautinov won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1352

Elo1491

Marcos ViniciusvsAli BagautinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Ali Bagautinov won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:28

Model Prediction: Marcos Vinicius wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Ali Bagautinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Vinicius at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ali Bagautinov has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Marcos Vinicius has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcos Vinicius

Red Corner

Ali Bagautinov

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-345

(78%)

1352

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'4"

177.8 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcos Vinicius

oldest →

KOvs Wagner Campos · Jun 12

KOvs Johnny Bedford · Dec 12

latest

Ali Bagautinov

oldest →

vs John Lineker · Feb 14

vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14

vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15

vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcos ViniciusMetricAli Bagautinov

1.93

Strikes / min

2.85

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

47%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.51

25%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcos ViniciusAli Bagautinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcos Vinicius(3 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.3|Blue +138.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcos ViniciusTargetAli Bagautinov

By target zone

43% acc · 44%

Head

52% acc · 76%

88% acc · 26%

Body

71% acc · 13%

73% acc · 30%

Leg

80% acc · 11%

By position

37% acc · 41%

Distance

35% acc · 32%

100% acc · 26%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

90% acc · 33%

Ground

70% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcos Vinicius rounds

even

Ali Bagautinov rounds

Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:40

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Ali Bagautinov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Ali Bagautinov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 47

Sig Strikes

38 / 68

62%

Sig Str %

55%

45 / 68

Total Strikes

46 / 78

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:40

Ctrl Time

4:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ali Bagautinov	22 / 34	25 / 38	0 / 1	1
1	Marcos Vinicius	8 / 10	19 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Ali Bagautinov	10 / 24	13 / 28	3 / 3	0
2	Marcos Vinicius	11 / 24	15 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Ali Bagautinov	6 / 10	8 / 12	0 / 1	0
3	Marcos Vinicius	8 / 13	11 / 16	0 / 0	0

Marcos Vinicius

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Ali Bagautinov

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7