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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1506

Elo1354

Marcos Rogerio de LimavsRichardson MoreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:20

Model Prediction: Richardson Moreira wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Richardson Moreira at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Richardson Moreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Richardson Moreira has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Richardson Moreira has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Red Corner

Richardson Moreira

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1506

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Richardson Moreira

oldest →

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaMetricRichardson Moreira

3.70

Strikes / min

1.17

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

1.83

51%

Strike defense

67%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

0.00

59%

Takedown defense

100%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-0.66

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)Richardson Moreira(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +151.9|Blue -151.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaTargetRichardson Moreira

By target zone

60% acc · 43%

Head

50% acc · 33%

80% acc · 57%

Body

100% acc · 67%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 14%

Distance

80% acc · 57%

Clinch

75% acc · 100%

67% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

even

Richardson Moreira rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 10

Sig Strikes

3 / 4

70%

Sig Str %

75%

7 / 10

Total Strikes

4 / 5

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Richardson Moreira	3 / 4	4 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	7 / 10	7 / 10	0 / 0	0

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Richardson Moreira

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2