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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · SUB R1

Elo1506

Elo1485

Marcos Rogerio de LimavsNikita KrylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:29

Style matchupMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-roundedvsNikita Krylov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Marcos Rogerio de Lima has lost 71% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Red Corner

Nikita Krylov

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1506

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaMetricNikita Krylov

3.70

Strikes / min

4.36

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

51%

Strike defense

47%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

2.05

59%

Takedown defense

53%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcos Rogerio de LimaNikita Krylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)Nikita Krylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.7|Blue -20.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaTargetNikita Krylov

By target zone

38% acc · 60%

Head

70% acc · 76%

100% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 19%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

54% acc · 33%

Clinch

91% acc · 48%

Ground

80% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

even

Nikita Krylov rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 10

Sig Strikes

21 / 29

50%

Sig Str %

72%

5 / 10

Total Strikes

34 / 46

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nikita Krylov	21 / 29	34 / 46	0 / 1	1
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0	2

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23