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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1506

Elo1448

Marcos Rogerio de LimavsJunior TafaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:14

Style matchupMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-roundedvsJunior Tafa: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(68.6%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Tafa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Red Corner

Junior Tafa

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1506

Elo

1448

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Nov 21

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

latest

Junior TafaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Valter Walker · Aug 24

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24

SUBvs Tuco Tokkos · Jul 25

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 26

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaMetricJunior Tafa

3.70

Strikes / min

3.62

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

51%

Strike defense

51%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

0.00

59%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcos Rogerio de LimaJunior Tafa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)Junior Tafa(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.0|Blue -58.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaTargetJunior Tafa

By target zone

61% acc · 58%

Head

38% acc · 82%

100% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 9%

92% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

69% acc · 67%

Distance

38% acc · 91%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

77% acc · 30%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

even

Junior Tafa rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control3:08

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:18

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 46

Sig Strikes

11 / 27

67.5%

Sig Str %

44%

63 / 78

Total Strikes

17 / 33

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Junior Tafa	6 / 18	10 / 22	0 / 0
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	27 / 36	55 / 66	1 / 3
2	Junior Tafa	5 / 9	7 / 11	0 / 0
2	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	6 / 10	8 / 12	0 / 0

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Junior Tafa

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9