Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1506
Elo1357

Marcos Rogerio de LimavsIgor PokrajacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:59

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Igor Pokrajac enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Marcos Rogerio de Lima has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Red Corner
VS
Igor Pokrajac
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
1506
Elo
1357
41
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima
oldest →
L
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22
W
SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22
W
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23
W
KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24
latest
Igor PokrajacL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Fabio Maldonado · May 12
L
SUBvs Vinny Magalhaes · Sep 12
L
vs Ryan Jimmo · Jun 13
L
KOvs Rafael Feijao · Nov 13
L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaMetricIgor Pokrajac
3.70
Strikes / min
2.25
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
4.26
51%
Strike defense
40%
1.40
TDs / 15 min
0.87
59%
Takedown defense
51%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80Δ 2.81 — meaningful gap-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1493Strikes7.0 vs 21.3Takedowns0.0 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.18Form1.0 vs -0.7
Marcos Rogerio de LimaIgor Pokrajac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)Igor Pokrajac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +149.4|Blue -149.4
Recent Form
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaTargetIgor Pokrajac

By target zone

9
75% acc · 50%
Head
3
50% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 11%
Body
0
7
100% acc · 39%
Leg
0

By position

8
80% acc · 44%
Distance
3
50% acc · 100%
8
100% acc · 44%
Clinch
0
2
67% acc · 11%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds
0
even
0
Igor Pokrajac rounds
Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control1:39
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
18 / 21
Sig Strikes
3 / 6
85%
Sig Str %
50%
33 / 37
Total Strikes
4 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:39
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Igor Pokrajac3 / 64 / 70 / 00
1Marcos Rogerio de Lima18 / 2133 / 370 / 00

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17

Igor Pokrajac

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10