Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · SUB R1

Elo1506

Elo1357

Marcos Rogerio de LimavsClint HesterUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:35

Style matchupMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-roundedvsClint Hester: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Clint Hester wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clint Hester at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Clint Hester has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Red Corner

Clint Hester

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1506

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Clint HesterL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dylan Andrews · Dec 13

vs Andy Enz · Feb 14

vs Antonio Braga Neto · Jun 14

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Nov 14

KOvs Vitor Miranda · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaMetricClint Hester

3.70

Strikes / min

3.36

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

51%

Strike defense

56%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

1.02

59%

Takedown defense

60%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking-0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcos Rogerio de LimaClint Hester

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)Clint Hester(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +149.3|Blue -149.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -22.0|Blue +22.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaTargetClint Hester

By target zone

69% acc · 83%

Head

0% acc

50% acc · 3%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

54% acc · 24%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

79% acc · 76%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

even

Clint Hester rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control3:57

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 41

Sig Strikes

0 / 5

70%

Sig Str %

84 / 103

Total Strikes

1 / 6

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clint Hester	0 / 5	1 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	29 / 41	84 / 103	0 / 0	1

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Clint Hester

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7