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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Marco Tulio won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1485

Elo1479

Marco TuliovsIhor PotieriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marco Tulio won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:04

Style matchupMarco Tulio: Elusive strikervsIhor Potieria: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Marco Tulio wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Marco Tulio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marco Tulio at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marco Tulio is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Ihor Potieria has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Ihor Potieria is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Marco Tulio has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ihor Potieria has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ihor Potieria (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marco Tulio

Red Corner

Ihor Potieria

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+385

(21%)

1485

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marco TulioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tresean Gore · Apr 25

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Nov 25

DECvs Roman Kopylov · May 26

latest

Ihor PotieriaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · May 23

KOvs Rodolfo Bellato · Dec 23

vs Robert Bryczek · Feb 24

SUBvs Michel Pereira · May 24

vs Cesar Almeida · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marco TulioMetricIhor Potieria

6.02

Strikes / min

4.44

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

4.96

56%

Strike defense

50%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.73

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.05Δ 3.57 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marco TulioIhor Potieria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marco Tulio(4 fights)Ihor Potieria(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.2|Blue -5.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marco TulioTargetIhor Potieria

By target zone

49% acc · 69%

Head

25% acc · 33%

71% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 17%

67% acc · 14%

Leg

60% acc · 50%

By position

46% acc · 59%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

69% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marco Tulio rounds

even

Ihor Potieria rounds

Round 1Marco Tulio edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 54

Sig Strikes

6 / 15

53%

Sig Str %

40%

34 / 62

Total Strikes

6 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ihor Potieria	6 / 15	6 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Marco Tulio	29 / 54	34 / 62	0 / 0	0

Marco Tulio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Ihor Potieria

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8