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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Nelson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1376

Elo1496

Marco Polo ReyesvsKyle NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Saturday, September 21, 2019Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Kyle Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:36

Style matchupMarco Polo Reyes: Pressure fightervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Marco Polo Reyes wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marco Polo Reyes at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Nelson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marco Polo Reyes

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1376

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marco Polo Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Drew Dober · Jun 19

latest

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marco Polo ReyesMetricKyle Nelson

6.00

Strikes / min

3.60

5.52

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

59%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.18

46%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.48Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marco Polo ReyesKyle Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marco Polo Reyes(2 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -119.8|Blue +119.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marco Polo ReyesTargetKyle Nelson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

67% acc · 67%

83% acc · 83%

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 50%

Distance

67% acc · 17%

100% acc · 50%

Clinch

77% acc · 83%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marco Polo Reyes rounds

even

Kyle Nelson rounds

Round 1Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

12 / 16

60%

Sig Str %

75%

7 / 11

Total Strikes

12 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Nelson	12 / 16	12 / 16	0 / 2	0
1	Marco Polo Reyes	6 / 10	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

Marco Polo Reyes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11