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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marco Beltran won · SUB R2

Elo1362

Elo1359

Marco BeltranvsReginaldo VieiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marco Beltran won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:04

Model Prediction: Reginaldo Vieira wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Marco Beltran wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reginaldo Vieira at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marco Beltran has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Marco Beltran has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marco Beltran

Red Corner

Reginaldo Vieira

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1362

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marco BeltranL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Nov 14

DECvs Ning Guangyou · Nov 15

SUBvs Joe Soto · Nov 16

vs Matt Schnell · Oct 17

latest

Reginaldo Vieira

oldest →

vs Dileno Lopes · Aug 15

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Feb 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marco BeltranMetricReginaldo Vieira

2.07

Strikes / min

3.76

1.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

63%

Strike defense

59%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.97

46%

Takedown defense

25%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.14evenly matched on net striking+0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marco BeltranReginaldo Vieira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marco Beltran(5 fights)Reginaldo Vieira(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marco BeltranTargetReginaldo Vieira

By target zone

38% acc · 75%

Head

23% acc · 50%

67% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 40%

50% acc · 5%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

23% acc · 35%

Distance

23% acc · 50%

79% acc · 55%

Clinch

86% acc · 30%

50% acc · 10%

Ground

67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marco Beltran rounds

even

Reginaldo Vieira rounds

Round 1Reginaldo Vieira edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 48

Sig Strikes

20 / 56

42.5%

Sig Str %

36.5%

31 / 60

Total Strikes

35 / 72

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

3:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Reginaldo Vieira	6 / 30	9 / 33	2 / 3	0
1	Marco Beltran	10 / 28	16 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Reginaldo Vieira	14 / 26	26 / 39	1 / 1	0
2	Marco Beltran	10 / 20	15 / 25	0 / 0	1

Marco Beltran

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Reginaldo Vieira

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3