← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marco Beltran won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1475

Marco BeltranvsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · Saturday, November 15, 2014Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Marco Beltran won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marco Beltran wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Marco Beltran wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marco Beltran at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marco Beltran has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Marlon Vera has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marco Beltran

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1362

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marco BeltranL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Ning Guangyou · Nov 15

SUBvs Reginaldo Vieira · Jul 16

SUBvs Joe Soto · Nov 16

vs Matt Schnell · Oct 17

latest

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marco BeltranMetricMarlon Vera

2.07

Strikes / min

4.18

1.93

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

63%

Strike defense

50%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.47

46%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.14Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap-1.16

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marco Beltran(5 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -112.5|Blue +112.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marco BeltranTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

44% acc · 71%

Head

43% acc · 80%

57% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 20%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

By position

34% acc · 32%

Distance

27% acc · 28%

75% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

60% acc · 48%

Ground

57% acc · 64%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marco Beltran rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Marco Beltran edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:52

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Marco Beltran edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:03

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:39Control

Round 3Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:51

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 62

Sig Strikes

25 / 56

50.7%

Sig Str %

36%

70 / 104

Total Strikes

30 / 62

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:46

Ctrl Time

6:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marlon Vera	5 / 16	8 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Marco Beltran	10 / 19	23 / 34	1 / 4	0
2	Marlon Vera	1 / 4	2 / 6	1 / 1	2
2	Marco Beltran	10 / 17	26 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Marlon Vera	19 / 36	20 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Marco Beltran	11 / 26	21 / 36	0 / 0	0

Marco Beltran

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26