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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Joe Soto won · SUB R1
Elo1362
Elo1364
Joe Soto

Marco BeltranvsJoe SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Joe Soto won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:37

Model Prediction: Marco Beltran wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Joe Soto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marco Beltran at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Soto threatens submissions; Marco Beltran has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Joe Soto has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Marco Beltran has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marco Beltran
Red Corner
VS
Joe Soto
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1362
Elo
1364
40
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marco Beltran
oldest →
W
vs Marlon Vera · Nov 14
W
DECvs Ning Guangyou · Nov 15
W
SUBvs Reginaldo Vieira · Jul 16
L
vs Matt Schnell · Oct 17
latest
Joe SotoL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Michinori Tanaka · Jan 16
W
SUBvs Chris Beal · Jun 16
W
vs Rani Yahya · Mar 17
L
SUBvs Brett Johns · Dec 17
L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · Feb 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marco BeltranMetricJoe Soto
2.07
Strikes / min
3.36
1.93
Strikes absorbed / min
5.37
63%
Strike defense
67%
0.70
TDs / 15 min
0.85
46%
Takedown defense
70%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.14Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1548 vs 1474Strikes27.0 vs 45.3Takedowns0.7 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.33 vs 1.50Form1.0 vs -0.1
Marco BeltranJoe Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Marco Beltran(5 fights)Joe Soto(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -19.0|Blue +19.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marco BeltranTargetJoe Soto

By target zone

1
20% acc · 33%
Head
0
2
100% acc · 67%
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
2
100% acc · 100%

By position

2
29% acc · 67%
Distance
2
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marco Beltran rounds
0
even
1
Joe Soto rounds
Round 1Joe Soto edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:26Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 8
Sig Strikes
2 / 2
37%
Sig Str %
100%
3 / 9
Total Strikes
2 / 2
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Soto2 / 22 / 21 / 11
1Marco Beltran3 / 83 / 90 / 00

Marco Beltran

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5

Joe Soto

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8