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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Warlley Alves won · SUB R3

Elo1356

Elo1489

Marcio Alexandre JuniorvsWarlley AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Warlley Alves won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:25

Model Prediction: Marcio Alexandre Junior wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcio Alexandre Junior at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marcio Alexandre Junior (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marcio Alexandre Junior

Red Corner

Warlley Alves

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1356

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcio Alexandre JuniorL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Dec 14

vs Court McGee · Dec 15

latest

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcio Alexandre JuniorMetricWarlley Alves

1.61

Strikes / min

3.04

2.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

42%

Strike defense

50%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

1.22

66%

Takedown defense

62%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28evenly matched on net striking-0.91

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcio Alexandre Junior(3 fights)Warlley Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -133.4|Blue +133.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcio Alexandre JuniorTargetWarlley Alves

By target zone

9% acc · 13%

Head

41% acc · 63%

70% acc · 88%

Body

67% acc · 21%

Leg

75% acc · 16%

By position

13% acc · 25%

Distance

47% acc · 37%

100% acc · 75%

Clinch

38% acc · 16%

Ground

56% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcio Alexandre Junior rounds

even

Warlley Alves rounds

Round 1Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:57Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:42Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:05

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 21

Sig Strikes

19 / 39

27.7%

Sig Str %

63.3%

22 / 36

Total Strikes

44 / 67

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

7:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Warlley Alves	7 / 18	19 / 33	2 / 2	0
1	Marcio Alexandre Junior	5 / 10	14 / 19	0 / 1	0
2	Warlley Alves	10 / 19	23 / 32	0 / 1	0
2	Marcio Alexandre Junior	3 / 9	8 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	Warlley Alves	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	1
3	Marcio Alexandre Junior	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0

Marcio Alexandre Junior

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16