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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · S-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1492

Marcio Alexandre JuniorvsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Tim Means won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Marcio Alexandre Junior (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marcio Alexandre Junior

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1356

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcio Alexandre JuniorL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Warlley Alves · May 14

vs Court McGee · Dec 15

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcio Alexandre JuniorMetricTim Means

1.61

Strikes / min

5.04

2.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

42%

Strike defense

60%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

1.14

66%

Takedown defense

64%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcio Alexandre Junior(3 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.8|Blue +135.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcio Alexandre JuniorTargetTim Means

By target zone

38% acc · 64%

Head

57% acc · 56%

60% acc · 25%

Body

56% acc · 21%

80% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

38% acc · 69%

Distance

61% acc · 79%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 7%

80% acc · 22%

Ground

86% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcio Alexandre Junior rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:07

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:08

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:10Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:30

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 80

Sig Strikes

43 / 68

44.3%

Sig Str %

63%

60 / 109

Total Strikes

53 / 79

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

16.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

2:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tim Means	16 / 26	17 / 28	0 / 1
1	Marcio Alexandre Junior	16 / 29	18 / 31	0 / 1
2	Tim Means	11 / 17	17 / 23	1 / 1
2	Marcio Alexandre Junior	12 / 26	33 / 52	1 / 2
3	Tim Means	16 / 25	19 / 28	0 / 0
3	Marcio Alexandre Junior	8 / 25	9 / 26	0 / 1

Marcio Alexandre Junior

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29