← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tyrell Fortune won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1492

Marcin TyburavsTyrell FortuneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Tyrell Fortune won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsTyrell Fortune: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Tyrell Fortune wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -104 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyrell Fortune has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Tyrell Fortune

Blue Corner

-104

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-122

(55%)

1495

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin Tybura

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Mar 24

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

latest

Tyrell Fortune

oldest →

KOvs Rizvan Kuniev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricTyrell Fortune

3.56

Strikes / min

2.00

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.13

55%

Strike defense

57%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

3.00

70%

Takedown defense

100%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-1.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaTyrell Fortune

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Tyrell Fortune(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetTyrell Fortune

By target zone

29% acc · 47%

Head

45% acc · 80%

74% acc · 43%

Body

100% acc · 20%

83% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 77%

Distance

42% acc · 60%

79% acc · 23%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

60% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Tyrell Fortune rounds

Round 1Tyrell Fortune edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:03Control

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:41

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 110

Sig Strikes

30 / 59

42%

Sig Str %

51.3%

85 / 153

Total Strikes

49 / 81

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

5:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tyrell Fortune	9 / 15	18 / 26	1 / 2
1	Marcin Tybura	8 / 22	13 / 28	0 / 0
2	Tyrell Fortune	13 / 26	13 / 26	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	19 / 50	21 / 52	0 / 0
3	Tyrell Fortune	8 / 18	18 / 29	2 / 3
3	Marcin Tybura	20 / 38	51 / 73	0 / 1

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Tyrell Fortune

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2