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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1391

Marcin TyburavsStefan StruveUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Sunday, July 22, 2018Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsStefan Struve: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stefan Struve is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Marcin Tybura has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stefan Struve has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Stefan Struve

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1495

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 17

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricStefan Struve

3.56

Strikes / min

3.12

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

55%

Strike defense

46%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.56

70%

Takedown defense

55%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaStefan Struve

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Stefan Struve(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +104.9|Blue -104.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetStefan Struve

By target zone

46% acc · 41%

Head

31% acc · 65%

71% acc · 24%

Body

60% acc · 10%

82% acc · 34%

Leg

89% acc · 26%

By position

45% acc · 46%

Distance

37% acc · 87%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

85% acc · 54%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Stefan Struve rounds

Round 1Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:27

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:12

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:02

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 68

Sig Strikes

31 / 78

61%

Sig Str %

39.7%

87 / 123

Total Strikes

33 / 81

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:41

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stefan Struve	11 / 25	13 / 28	0 / 0
1	Marcin Tybura	12 / 25	25 / 44	2 / 2
2	Stefan Struve	10 / 26	10 / 26	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	14 / 19	24 / 30	2 / 3
3	Stefan Struve	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	15 / 24	38 / 49	1 / 2

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20