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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Shamil Abdurakhimov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1447

Marcin TyburavsShamil AbdurakhimovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Saturday, April 20, 2019Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Official fight result

Shamil Abdurakhimov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:15

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Shamil Abdurakhimov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shamil Abdurakhimov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marcin Tybura has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Shamil Abdurakhimov

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1495

Elo

1447

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Shamil AbdurakhimovL4 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 18

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Sep 19

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Sep 21

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Mar 22

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricShamil Abdurakhimov

3.56

Strikes / min

2.41

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

55%

Strike defense

55%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

1.01

70%

Takedown defense

45%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaShamil Abdurakhimov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Shamil Abdurakhimov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.7|Blue -48.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +55.0|Blue -55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetShamil Abdurakhimov

By target zone

29% acc · 61%

Head

33% acc · 67%

86% acc · 21%

Body

77% acc · 28%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 93%

Distance

35% acc · 72%

40% acc · 7%

Clinch

77% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Shamil Abdurakhimov rounds

Round 1Shamil Abdurakhimov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shamil Abdurakhimov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 70

Sig Strikes

36 / 87

39.5%

Sig Str %

42.5%

28 / 70

Total Strikes

36 / 87

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shamil Abdurakhimov	19 / 53	19 / 53	0 / 0
1	Marcin Tybura	14 / 36	14 / 36	0 / 0
2	Shamil Abdurakhimov	17 / 34	17 / 34	0 / 3
2	Marcin Tybura	14 / 34	14 / 34	0 / 0

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Shamil Abdurakhimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11