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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1515

Marcin TyburavsMick ParkinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsMick Parkin: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Mick Parkin wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mick Parkin at -168 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mick Parkin enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Marcin Tybura has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Mick Parkin

Blue Corner

+142

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-168

(63%)

1495

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Mar 24

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Mick ParkinW4 streak

oldest →

vs Jamal Pogues · Jul 23

vs Caio Machado · Nov 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Mar 24

KOvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricMick Parkin

3.56

Strikes / min

4.70

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

4.13

55%

Strike defense

58%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

1.38

70%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaMick Parkin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Mick Parkin(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.5|Blue +19.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetMick Parkin

By target zone

25% acc · 46%

Head

36% acc · 78%

73% acc · 48%

Body

50% acc · 2%

80% acc · 7%

Leg

92% acc · 20%

By position

40% acc · 98%

Distance

42% acc · 82%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

36% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Mick Parkin rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:19

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Mick Parkin edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:17

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:24Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:25

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 155

Sig Strikes

60 / 145

37.7%

Sig Str %

41.7%

64 / 158

Total Strikes

102 / 192

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

3:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mick Parkin	23 / 45	24 / 46	0 / 0
1	Marcin Tybura	21 / 56	21 / 56	1 / 1
2	Mick Parkin	15 / 38	41 / 69	1 / 1
2	Marcin Tybura	7 / 20	10 / 23	0 / 0
3	Mick Parkin	22 / 62	37 / 77	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	33 / 79	33 / 79	0 / 1

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Mick Parkin

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5