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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1496

Marcin TyburavsMaxim GrishinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsMaxim Grishin: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maxim Grishin is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Maxim Grishin

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1495

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Maxim Grishin

oldest →

KOvs Gadzhimurad Antigulov · Oct 20

vs Dustin Jacoby · Feb 21

vs William Knight · Feb 22

vs Philipe Lins · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricMaxim Grishin

3.56

Strikes / min

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

55%

Strike defense

58%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.21

70%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaMaxim Grishin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Maxim Grishin(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetMaxim Grishin

By target zone

42% acc · 63%

Head

45% acc · 50%

56% acc · 21%

Body

80% acc · 22%

57% acc · 17%

Leg

71% acc · 28%

By position

38% acc · 58%

Distance

52% acc · 78%

55% acc · 25%

Clinch

80% acc · 22%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Maxim Grishin rounds

Round 1Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:45

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:42

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:58

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 52

Sig Strikes

18 / 32

46%

Sig Str %

54.7%

70 / 119

Total Strikes

54 / 71

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

44.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:25

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maxim Grishin	9 / 13	21 / 27	0 / 0
1	Marcin Tybura	9 / 20	27 / 38	1 / 3
2	Maxim Grishin	5 / 9	24 / 28	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	7 / 15	19 / 30	1 / 2
3	Maxim Grishin	4 / 10	9 / 16	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	8 / 17	24 / 51	1 / 2

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Maxim Grishin

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5