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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1495

Elo1368

Marcin TyburavsLuis HenriqueUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:46

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsLuis Henrique: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Luis Henrique wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luis Henrique at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcin Tybura has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Marcin Tybura has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Luis Henrique

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1495

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Luis HenriqueL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 15

SUBvs Dmitrii Smoliakov · Jul 16

SUBvs Christian Colombo · Nov 16

vs Arjan Bhullar · Sep 17

vs Ryan Spann · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricLuis Henrique

3.56

Strikes / min

1.81

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.22

55%

Strike defense

47%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

3.09

70%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaLuis Henrique

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Luis Henrique(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +127.8|Blue -127.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetLuis Henrique

By target zone

72% acc · 82%

Head

41% acc · 50%

100% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 36%

Leg

67% acc · 14%

By position

44% acc · 22%

Distance

13% acc · 7%

95% acc · 40%

Clinch

76% acc · 93%

95% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Luis Henrique rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:35

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 2Luis Henrique edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:57Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:18

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:53Control

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 66

Sig Strikes

14 / 25

73.3%

Sig Str %

55.7%

144 / 174

Total Strikes

59 / 78

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 11

50%

TD %

23.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:53

Ctrl Time

8:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luis Henrique	5 / 7	22 / 27	2 / 4	0
1	Marcin Tybura	10 / 12	35 / 44	1 / 1	0
2	Luis Henrique	6 / 11	25 / 32	1 / 5	0
2	Marcin Tybura	10 / 19	33 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Luis Henrique	3 / 7	12 / 19	0 / 2	1
3	Marcin Tybura	30 / 35	76 / 88	0 / 1	0

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Luis Henrique

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6