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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1501

Marcin TyburavsJhonata DinizUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsJhonata Diniz: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Jhonata Diniz wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jhonata Diniz at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Jhonata Diniz

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1495

Elo

1501

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Mar 24

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Jhonata Diniz

oldest →

KOvs Austen Lane · Apr 24

vs Karl Williams · Aug 24

vs Alvin Hines · Jun 25

KOvs Mario Pinto · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricJhonata Diniz

3.56

Strikes / min

3.89

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

55%

Strike defense

56%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.00

70%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaJhonata Diniz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Jhonata Diniz(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.8|Blue +5.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetJhonata Diniz

By target zone

72% acc · 94%

Head

48% acc · 87%

50% acc · 3%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

47% acc · 26%

Distance

44% acc · 53%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

87% acc · 74%

Ground

60% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Jhonata Diniz rounds

Round 1Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control3:57

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control3:17

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 49

Sig Strikes

15 / 29

66%

Sig Str %

51.5%

153 / 187

Total Strikes

27 / 44

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:14

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jhonata Diniz	7 / 14	17 / 26	0 / 0
1	Marcin Tybura	3 / 5	66 / 82	0 / 1
2	Jhonata Diniz	8 / 15	10 / 18	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	32 / 44	87 / 105	1 / 2

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Jhonata Diniz

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5