← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · KO/TKO

Elo1495

Elo1419

Marcin TyburavsGreg HardyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Saturday, December 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

KO/TKO

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsGreg Hardy: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Greg Hardy wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Greg Hardy at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Greg Hardy is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Greg Hardy

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1495

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

198.12 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Greg HardyL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Alekander Volkov · Nov 19

vs Yorgan De Castro · May 20

KOvs Maurice Greene · Oct 20

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Jul 21

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricGreg Hardy

3.56

Strikes / min

4.79

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

55%

Strike defense

55%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.20

70%

Takedown defense

64%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaGreg Hardy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Greg Hardy(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +76.0|Blue -76.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetGreg Hardy

By target zone

41% acc · 67%

Head

45% acc · 58%

83% acc · 20%

Body

92% acc · 24%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

69% acc · 18%

By position

45% acc · 65%

Distance

54% acc · 92%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

67% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Greg Hardy rounds

Round 1Greg Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:02

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control1:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 101

Sig Strikes

50 / 91

48.5%

Sig Str %

51%

60 / 111

Total Strikes

50 / 91

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Greg Hardy	38 / 62	38 / 62	0 / 0
1	Marcin Tybura	16 / 36	16 / 36	0 / 1
2	Greg Hardy	12 / 29	12 / 29	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	35 / 65	44 / 75	1 / 3

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Greg Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9