← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1467

Marcin TyburavsBlagoy IvanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Saturday, February 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsBlagoy Ivanov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Blagoy Ivanov (53.5%).
Marcin Tybura has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Blagoy Ivanov

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1495

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Blagoy Ivanov

oldest →

vs Tai Tuivasa · Jun 19

vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 19

vs Augusto Sakai · May 20

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 22

vs Alexandr Romanov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricBlagoy Ivanov

3.56

Strikes / min

3.25

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

4.20

55%

Strike defense

53%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.69

70%

Takedown defense

61%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap-0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaBlagoy Ivanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Blagoy Ivanov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.9|Blue -28.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetBlagoy Ivanov

By target zone

17% acc · 30%

Head

24% acc · 71%

79% acc · 48%

Body

67% acc · 29%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 98%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Blagoy Ivanov rounds

Round 1Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Blagoy Ivanov edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control4:55

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 103

Sig Strikes

34 / 113

59%

Sig Str %

29.5%

61 / 133

Total Strikes

34 / 113

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:55

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Blagoy Ivanov	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 0
1	Marcin Tybura	22 / 45	22 / 45	0 / 0
2	Blagoy Ivanov	22 / 72	22 / 72	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	17 / 57	17 / 57	0 / 0
3	Blagoy Ivanov	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	1 / 1	22 / 31	1 / 1

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Blagoy Ivanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8