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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Augusto Sakai won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Marcin Tybura
Elo1496

Marcin TyburavsAugusto SakaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Saturday, September 14, 2019Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Augusto Sakai won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:59

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsAugusto Sakai: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Augusto Sakai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura
Red Corner
VS
Augusto Sakai
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1495
Elo
1496
40
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24
W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24
W
vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25
L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25
L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26
latest
Augusto Sakai
oldest →
L
KOvs Alistair Overeem · Sep 20
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21
L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21
L
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 22
W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricAugusto Sakai
3.56
Strikes / min
4.60
3.26
Strikes absorbed / min
3.83
55%
Strike defense
48%
1.30
TDs / 15 min
0.23
70%
Takedown defense
56%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1505 vs 1525Strikes3.6 vs 5.5Takedowns1.5 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs 1.0
Marcin TyburaAugusto Sakai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Augusto Sakai(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Recent Form
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetAugusto Sakai

By target zone

1
50% acc · 17%
Head
13
52% acc · 87%
1
100% acc · 17%
Body
2
100% acc · 13%
4
100% acc · 67%
Leg
0

By position

6
86% acc · 100%
Distance
6
33% acc · 40%
0
Clinch
7
100% acc · 47%
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marcin Tybura rounds
0
even
1
Augusto Sakai rounds
Round 1Augusto Sakai edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 7
Sig Strikes
15 / 27
85%
Sig Str %
55%
6 / 7
Total Strikes
15 / 27
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Augusto Sakai15 / 2715 / 270 / 00
1Marcin Tybura6 / 76 / 70 / 00

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights24

Augusto Sakai

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9