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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · M-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1506

Marcin TyburavsAlexandr RomanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsAlexandr Romanov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandr Romanov at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcin Tybura has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Alexandr Romanov

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1495

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Alexandr Romanov

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Apr 22

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricAlexandr Romanov

3.56

Strikes / min

3.78

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

55%

Strike defense

54%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

4.49

70%

Takedown defense

28%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaAlexandr Romanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.9|Blue +10.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetAlexandr Romanov

By target zone

41% acc · 64%

Head

37% acc · 60%

59% acc · 21%

Body

58% acc · 18%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

82% acc · 23%

By position

47% acc · 91%

Distance

32% acc · 53%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 23%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

91% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Alexandr Romanov rounds

Round 1Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:27Control

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:48

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 98

Sig Strikes

40 / 88

32.3%

Sig Str %

51.3%

82 / 135

Total Strikes

95 / 160

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

5:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexandr Romanov	14 / 18	64 / 81	2 / 3
1	Marcin Tybura	0 / 3	1 / 4	0 / 0
2	Alexandr Romanov	11 / 25	16 / 34	0 / 3
2	Marcin Tybura	17 / 36	50 / 71	0 / 0
3	Alexandr Romanov	15 / 45	15 / 45	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	30 / 59	31 / 60	0 / 0

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10