Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Philipe Lins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1511

Marcin PrachniovsPhilipe LinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Saturday, April 23, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Philipe Lins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Prachnio: StrikervsPhilipe Lins: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Marcin Prachnio wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Philipe Lins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Prachnio at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Philipe Lins enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Philipe Lins has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Philipe Lins has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Prachnio

Red Corner

Philipe Lins

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1489

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin PrachnioL2 streak

oldest →

vs William Knight · Feb 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23

vs Devin Clark · Feb 24

SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25

latest

Philipe LinsW3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · May 20

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 20

KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Feb 23

vs Maxim Grishin · Jun 23

vs Ion Cutelaba · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin PrachnioMetricPhilipe Lins

5.52

Strikes / min

3.80

3.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.59

54%

Strike defense

46%

0.14

TDs / 15 min

1.65

53%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.37Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap+0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin PrachnioPhilipe Lins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)Philipe Lins(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.4|Blue +22.4

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -364.0|Blue +364.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin PrachnioTargetPhilipe Lins

By target zone

27% acc · 18%

Head

46% acc · 56%

92% acc · 59%

Body

91% acc · 31%

85% acc · 23%

Leg

89% acc · 13%

By position

58% acc · 64%

Distance

54% acc · 81%

74% acc · 35%

Clinch

90% acc · 14%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

75% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Prachnio rounds

even

Philipe Lins rounds

Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:28

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Philipe Lins edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control1:14

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Philipe Lins edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:11

17Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 117

Sig Strikes

64 / 110

63.7%

Sig Str %

56%

116 / 159

Total Strikes

96 / 142

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 11

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:53

Ctrl Time

5:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Philipe Lins	14 / 27	15 / 28	1 / 2
1	Marcin Prachnio	30 / 42	43 / 55	0 / 0
2	Philipe Lins	33 / 49	54 / 70	0 / 3
2	Marcin Prachnio	28 / 50	46 / 68	0 / 1
3	Philipe Lins	17 / 34	27 / 44	3 / 6
3	Marcin Prachnio	16 / 25	27 / 36	0 / 0

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Philipe Lins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6