Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mike Rodriguez won · KO/TKO

Elo1489

Elo1408

Marcin PrachniovsMike RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Saturday, August 22, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Rodriguez won

KO/TKO

Style matchupMarcin Prachnio: StrikervsMike Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Mike Rodriguez wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Mike Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Rodriguez at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Rodriguez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marcin Prachnio has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Marcin Prachnio has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Rodriguez (53.5%).
Mike Rodriguez has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Prachnio

Red Corner

Mike Rodriguez

Blue Corner

+188

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1489

Elo

1408

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin PrachnioL2 streak

oldest →

vs William Knight · Feb 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23

vs Devin Clark · Feb 24

SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25

latest

Mike RodriguezL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Milstead · Dec 18

KOvs Da Un Jung · Dec 19

SUBvs Ed Herman · Sep 20

SUBvs Danilo Marques · Feb 21

vs Tafon Nchukwi · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin PrachnioMetricMike Rodriguez

5.52

Strikes / min

4.35

3.15

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

54%

Strike defense

41%

0.14

TDs / 15 min

0.00

53%

Takedown defense

37%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.37Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin PrachnioMike Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)Mike Rodriguez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.1|Blue -81.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +462.0|Blue -462.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin PrachnioTargetMike Rodriguez

By target zone

20% acc · 7%

Head

69% acc · 43%

80% acc · 29%

Body

88% acc · 33%

90% acc · 64%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

64% acc · 64%

Distance

73% acc · 38%

83% acc · 36%

Clinch

85% acc · 52%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Prachnio rounds

even

Mike Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Mike Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 20

Sig Strikes

21 / 26

70%

Sig Str %

80%

23 / 30

Total Strikes

21 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Rodriguez	21 / 26	21 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Marcin Prachnio	14 / 20	23 / 30	0 / 0	0

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Mike Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights7