Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Prachnio won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1489

Elo1422

Marcin PrachniovsIke VillanuevaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 26, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Prachnio won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:56

Style matchupMarcin Prachnio: StrikervsIke Villanueva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Marcin Prachnio wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Marcin Prachnio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Prachnio at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcin Prachnio has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ike Villanueva has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Prachnio

Red Corner

Ike Villanueva

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1489

Elo

1422

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin PrachnioL2 streak

oldest →

vs William Knight · Feb 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23

vs Devin Clark · Feb 24

SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25

latest

Ike VillanuevaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chase Sherman · May 20

KOvs Jordan Wright · Aug 20

KOvs Vinicius Moreira · Jan 21

KOvs Nicolae Negumereanu · Oct 21

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin PrachnioMetricIke Villanueva

5.52

Strikes / min

3.66

3.15

Strikes absorbed / min

7.24

54%

Strike defense

36%

0.14

TDs / 15 min

0.60

53%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.37Δ 5.95 — meaningful gap-3.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin PrachnioIke Villanueva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)Ike Villanueva(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.8|Blue -66.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin PrachnioTargetIke Villanueva

By target zone

44% acc · 39%

Head

40% acc · 85%

79% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 12%

100% acc · 36%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

64% acc · 93%

Distance

43% acc · 79%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

44% acc · 12%

Ground

43% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Prachnio rounds

even

Ike Villanueva rounds

Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 92

Sig Strikes

34 / 79

72%

Sig Str %

36%

60 / 93

Total Strikes

34 / 79

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ike Villanueva	32 / 72	32 / 72	1 / 1
1	Marcin Prachnio	48 / 79	49 / 80	0 / 0
2	Ike Villanueva	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0
2	Marcin Prachnio	11 / 13	11 / 13	0 / 0

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Ike Villanueva

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6