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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Held won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1510

Marcin HeldvsNasrat HaqparastUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · Saturday, October 21, 2017Gdansk, Poland

Official fight result

Marcin Held won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Held: WrestlervsNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Marcin Held wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Marcin Held wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Held at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcin Held enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nasrat Haqparast has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nasrat Haqparast has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Held

Red Corner

Nasrat Haqparast

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1491

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin HeldL3 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Nov 16

vs Joe Lauzon · Jan 17

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · May 17

latest

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin HeldMetricNasrat Haqparast

1.41

Strikes / min

6.36

2.02

Strikes absorbed / min

6.00

47%

Strike defense

63%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

0.34

37%

Takedown defense

86%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin HeldNasrat Haqparast

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Held(4 fights)Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.1|Blue +19.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin HeldTargetNasrat Haqparast

By target zone

20% acc · 89%

Head

29% acc · 67%

25% acc · 5%

Body

71% acc · 19%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

19% acc · 79%

Distance

34% acc · 89%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

50% acc · 21%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Held rounds

even

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

Round 1Marcin Held edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:20

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:43

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Marcin Held edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:20

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 89

Sig Strikes

27 / 75

23%

Sig Str %

36%

59 / 137

Total Strikes

43 / 94

3 / 10

TDs

1 / 1

30.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:23

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nasrat Haqparast	11 / 32	12 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Marcin Held	8 / 45	19 / 60	1 / 3	0
2	Nasrat Haqparast	10 / 21	12 / 23	1 / 1	0
2	Marcin Held	7 / 31	27 / 53	1 / 4	0
3	Nasrat Haqparast	6 / 22	19 / 38	0 / 0	0
3	Marcin Held	4 / 13	13 / 24	1 / 3	1

Marcin Held

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15