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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Damir Hadzovic won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1492

Marcin HeldvsDamir HadzovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · Sunday, May 28, 2017Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Damir Hadzovic won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:07

Model Prediction: Marcin Held wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Damir Hadzovic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Held at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damir Hadzovic has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Held

Red Corner

Damir Hadzovic

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1491

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin Held

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Nov 16

vs Joe Lauzon · Jan 17

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 17

latest

Damir HadzovicL2 streak

oldest →

vs Christos Giagos · Jun 19

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Mar 20

vs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 21

vs Marc Diakiese · Jul 22

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin HeldMetricDamir Hadzovic

1.41

Strikes / min

3.34

2.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.74

47%

Strike defense

59%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

0.91

37%

Takedown defense

34%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin HeldDamir Hadzovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Held(4 fights)Damir Hadzovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -280.0|Blue +280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin HeldTargetDamir Hadzovic

By target zone

46% acc · 97%

Head

43% acc · 86%

100% acc · 3%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 42%

Distance

43% acc · 86%

75% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

75% acc · 39%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Held rounds

even

Damir Hadzovic rounds

Round 1Marcin Held edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:03

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcin Held edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control4:16

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Damir Hadzovic edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 66

Sig Strikes

14 / 30

54.3%

Sig Str %

57.7%

62 / 103

Total Strikes

19 / 35

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:19

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damir Hadzovic	10 / 24	11 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Marcin Held	22 / 53	40 / 73	1 / 1	0
2	Damir Hadzovic	2 / 3	6 / 7	0 / 1	0
2	Marcin Held	8 / 11	21 / 28	3 / 3	1
3	Damir Hadzovic	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Marcin Held	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0

Marcin Held

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Damir Hadzovic

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10