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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Stevie Ray won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1354
Marcin Bandel
Elo1492
Stevie Ray

Marcin BandelvsStevie RayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2015Krakow, Poland

Official fight result

Stevie Ray won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:35

Model Prediction: Marcin Bandel wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Stevie Ray wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Bandel at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stevie Ray has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stevie Ray has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Bandel
Red Corner
VS
Stevie Ray
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1354
Elo
1492
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin Bandel
oldest →
L
KOvs Mairbek Taisumov · Oct 14
latest
Stevie Ray
oldest →
L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17
L
vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18
W
vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18
L
KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19
W
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin BandelMetricStevie Ray
0.79
Strikes / min
3.73
5.26
Strikes absorbed / min
2.93
23%
Strike defense
54%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.75
0%
Takedown defense
55%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-4.47Δ 5.27 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1481 vs 1500Strikes3.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Marcin BandelStevie Ray

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Marcin Bandel(2 fights)Stevie Ray(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.4|Blue +137.4
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin BandelTargetStevie Ray

By target zone

1
50% acc · 33%
Head
27
77% acc · 87%
1
50% acc · 33%
Body
1
100% acc · 3%
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
3
50% acc · 10%

By position

3
100% acc · 100%
Distance
5
50% acc · 16%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
100% acc · 3%
0
0% acc
Ground
25
81% acc · 81%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marcin Bandel rounds
0
even
2
Stevie Ray rounds
Round 1Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control1:22
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:09Control
Round 2Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:13
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 5
Sig Strikes
31 / 42
60%
Sig Str %
62%
5 / 7
Total Strikes
45 / 57
0 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
1:35
Ctrl Time
3:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Stevie Ray4 / 1018 / 250 / 01
1Marcin Bandel3 / 55 / 70 / 40
2Stevie Ray27 / 3227 / 320 / 01
2Marcin Bandel0 / 00 / 00 / 10

Marcin Bandel

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11