Welterweight

3 Rounds

Marcelo Guimaraes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Marcelo GuimaraesvsDan StittgenUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Marcelo Guimaraes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcelo Guimaraes: Pressure fightervsDan Stittgen: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Dan Stittgen wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Marcelo Guimaraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Stittgen at +350 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcelo Guimaraes has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dan Stittgen has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcelo Guimaraes

Red Corner

Dan Stittgen

Blue Corner

-395

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+350

(22%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

180 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcelo Guimaraes

oldest →

KOvs Hyun Gyu Lim · Mar 13

vs Andy Enz · Jun 14

KOvs Vitor Miranda · Mar 16

latest

Dan Stittgen

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Feb 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcelo GuimaraesMetricDan Stittgen

4.67

Strikes / min

2.97

4.41

Strikes absorbed / min

4.42

62%

Strike defense

37%

1.99

TDs / 15 min

0.78

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcelo GuimaraesDan Stittgen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcelo Guimaraes(4 fights)Dan Stittgen(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.9|Blue -138.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcelo GuimaraesTargetDan Stittgen

By target zone

31% acc · 17%

Head

31% acc · 33%

62% acc · 13%

Body

58% acc · 22%

90% acc · 70%

Leg

71% acc · 45%

By position

48% acc · 51%

Distance

42% acc · 78%

100% acc · 49%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcelo Guimaraes rounds

even

Dan Stittgen rounds

Round 1Marcelo Guimaraes edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control4:16

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:14

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Marcelo Guimaraes edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:04

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 97

Sig Strikes

49 / 101

70.7%

Sig Str %

49%

130 / 164

Total Strikes

78 / 130

0 / 17

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:34

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Stittgen	7 / 14	23 / 30	1 / 1
1	Marcelo Guimaraes	17 / 17	43 / 43	0 / 11
2	Dan Stittgen	17 / 33	26 / 42	0 / 0
2	Marcelo Guimaraes	13 / 24	19 / 30	0 / 4
3	Dan Stittgen	25 / 54	29 / 58	0 / 0
3	Marcelo Guimaraes	33 / 56	68 / 91	0 / 2

Marcelo Guimaraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Dan Stittgen

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2