Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcelo Golm won · SUB R1

Elo1372

Elo1362

Marcelo GolmvsChristian ColomboUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Marcelo Golm won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:08

Model Prediction: Christian Colombo wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Marcelo Golm wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Colombo at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcelo Golm enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marcelo Golm threatens submissions; Christian Colombo has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Marcelo Golm has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Christian Colombo has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marcelo Golm

Red Corner

Christian Colombo

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1372

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcelo GolmL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Tim Johnson · Feb 18

vs Arjan Bhullar · Oct 18

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 19

latest

Christian Colombo

oldest →

SUBvs Luis Henrique · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcelo GolmMetricChristian Colombo

4.27

Strikes / min

2.76

4.30

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

45%

Strike defense

42%

0.45

TDs / 15 min

0.00

87%

Takedown defense

33%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-1.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcelo GolmChristian Colombo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcelo Golm(4 fights)Christian Colombo(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.8|Blue -9.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +45.3|Blue -45.3

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcelo GolmTargetChristian Colombo

By target zone

63% acc · 91%

Head

14% acc · 50%

100% acc · 3%

Body

100% acc · 50%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 20%

Distance

14% acc · 50%

47% acc · 23%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

87% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcelo Golm rounds

even

Christian Colombo rounds

Round 1Marcelo Golm edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control1:21

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 54

Sig Strikes

2 / 8

64%

Sig Str %

25%

47 / 70

Total Strikes

4 / 10

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Colombo	2 / 8	4 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Marcelo Golm	35 / 54	47 / 70	1 / 1	1

Marcelo Golm

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Christian Colombo

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach—

Fights2