Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Marc Diakiese won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1500
Elo1376

Marc DiakiesevsTeemu PackalenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · Saturday, March 18, 2017London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Marc Diakiese won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:30

Style matchupMarc Diakiese: WrestlervsTeemu Packalen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Marc Diakiese wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Marc Diakiese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marc Diakiese at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Teemu Packalen threatens submissions; Marc Diakiese has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Teemu Packalen has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marc Diakiese
Red Corner
VS
Teemu Packalen
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1500
Elo
1376
33
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marc Diakiese
oldest →
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22
L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23
W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23
latest
Teemu Packalen
oldest →
L
vs Mickael Lebout · Jul 15
W
SUBvs Thibault Gouti · Feb 16
L
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Sep 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marc DiakieseMetricTeemu Packalen
2.54
Strikes / min
2.57
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
52%
Strike defense
47%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
2.31
66%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1500Strikes28.5 vs 20.5Takedowns3.5 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs 0.3
Marc DiakieseTeemu Packalen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Marc Diakiese(10 fights)Teemu Packalen(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +123.8|Blue -123.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -286.0|Blue +286.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marc DiakieseTargetTeemu Packalen

By target zone

2
67% acc · 33%
Head
0
2
100% acc · 33%
Body
1
100% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

6
86% acc · 100%
Distance
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Marc Diakiese rounds
0
even
0
Teemu Packalen rounds
Round 1Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
6 / 7
Sig Strikes
1 / 1
85%
Sig Str %
100%
6 / 7
Total Strikes
1 / 1
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Teemu Packalen1 / 11 / 10 / 00
1Marc Diakiese6 / 76 / 70 / 00

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Teemu Packalen

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4