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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Fiziev won · U-DEC R3
Elo1500
Elo1509
Rafael Fiziev editorial illustration

Marc DiakiesevsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, July 18, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Rafael Fiziev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarc Diakiese: WrestlervsRafael Fiziev: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rafael Fiziev wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Rafael Fiziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Fiziev at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Fiziev has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marc Diakiese
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Fiziev
Blue Corner
-167
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1500
Elo
1509
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marc Diakiese
oldest →
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22
L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23
W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23
latest
Rafael Fiziev
oldest →
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23
L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26
W
KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marc DiakieseMetricRafael Fiziev
2.54
Strikes / min
4.71
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
4.84
52%
Strike defense
49%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
0.83
66%
Takedown defense
90%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1546 vs 1501Strikes2.9 vs 4.1Takedowns2.5 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.6 vs 0.3
Marc DiakieseRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Marc Diakiese(10 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -9.6|Blue +9.6
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marc DiakieseTargetRafael Fiziev

By target zone

31
30% acc · 46%
Head
28
43% acc · 36%
19
90% acc · 28%
Body
33
80% acc · 42%
18
82% acc · 26%
Leg
17
94% acc · 22%

By position

66
45% acc · 97%
Distance
67
61% acc · 86%
2
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
9
75% acc · 12%
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marc Diakiese rounds
1
even
2
Rafael Fiziev rounds
Round 1Rafael Fiziev edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:43Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:22
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rafael Fiziev edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
68 / 148
Sig Strikes
78 / 124
49.3%
Sig Str %
62.3%
73 / 153
Total Strikes
82 / 128
0 / 4
TDs
1 / 2
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:22
Ctrl Time
2:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rafael Fiziev18 / 3121 / 341 / 10
1Marc Diakiese11 / 1816 / 230 / 20
2Rafael Fiziev28 / 4128 / 410 / 00
2Marc Diakiese28 / 5928 / 590 / 10
3Rafael Fiziev32 / 5233 / 530 / 10
3Marc Diakiese29 / 7129 / 710 / 10

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights13