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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Alves won · SUB R1
Elo1500
Elo1451
Rafael Alves

Marc DiakiesevsRafael AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Alves won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:48

Model Prediction: Rafael Alves wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Rafael Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Alves at +200 American odds

+$200 profit

$300 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Alves enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Rafael Alves threatens submissions; Marc Diakiese has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Marc Diakiese has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Marc Diakiese has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marc Diakiese
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Alves
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1500
Elo
1451
33
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marc Diakiese
oldest →
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22
L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23
W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23
latest
Rafael AlvesL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Damir Ismagulov · May 21
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 22
L
vs Nurullo Aliev · Feb 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marc DiakieseMetricRafael Alves
2.54
Strikes / min
1.85
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.30
52%
Strike defense
58%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
0.29
66%
Takedown defense
44%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1525 vs 1484Strikes2.5 vs 1.9Takedowns3.3 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.50Form-0.3 vs -0.9
Marc DiakieseRafael Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Marc Diakiese(10 fights)Rafael Alves(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +48.7|Blue -48.7
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +308.0|Blue -308.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marc DiakieseTargetRafael Alves

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
3
38% acc · 50%
1
33% acc · 33%
Body
1
100% acc · 17%
2
67% acc · 67%
Leg
2
100% acc · 33%

By position

3
23% acc · 100%
Distance
6
55% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marc Diakiese rounds
0
even
1
Rafael Alves rounds
Round 1Rafael Alves edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:03
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 13
Sig Strikes
6 / 11
23%
Sig Str %
54%
3 / 13
Total Strikes
6 / 11
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rafael Alves6 / 116 / 110 / 01
1Marc Diakiese3 / 133 / 130 / 10

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Rafael Alves

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4