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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · SUB R2
Elo1500
Elo1514
Joel Alvarez

Marc DiakiesevsJoel AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Joel Alvarez won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:26

Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joel Alvarez at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marc Diakiese has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Joel Alvarez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marc Diakiese
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
1500
Elo
1514
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marc Diakiese
oldest →
L
SUBvs Rafael Alves · Nov 21
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22
L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22
W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23
latest
Joel Alvarez
oldest →
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22
W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24
W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24
W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25
L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marc DiakieseMetricJoel Alvarez
2.54
Strikes / min
4.53
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
52%
Strike defense
53%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
0.18
66%
Takedown defense
46%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1537Strikes2.5 vs 4.4Takedowns3.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.20Form-0.1 vs 0.1
Marc DiakieseJoel Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Marc Diakiese(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -280.0|Blue +280.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marc DiakieseTargetJoel Alvarez

By target zone

8
32% acc · 40%
Head
20
41% acc · 48%
6
55% acc · 30%
Body
12
75% acc · 29%
6
60% acc · 30%
Leg
10
100% acc · 24%

By position

20
43% acc · 100%
Distance
37
53% acc · 88%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 5%
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marc Diakiese rounds
1
even
1
Joel Alvarez rounds
Round 1Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:14
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns2
Control2:55
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
20 / 46
Sig Strikes
42 / 75
35%
Sig Str %
67%
29 / 60
Total Strikes
64 / 98
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 1
66%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
3:09
Ctrl Time
1:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joel Alvarez31 / 6231 / 620 / 10
1Marc Diakiese19 / 4220 / 470 / 00
2Joel Alvarez11 / 1333 / 360 / 01
2Marc Diakiese1 / 49 / 132 / 30

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights11