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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Marc Diakiese won · U-DEC R3
Elo1500
Elo1386
Joe Duffy

Marc DiakiesevsJoe DuffyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Marc Diakiese won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarc Diakiese: WrestlervsJoe Duffy: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Joe Duffy wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Marc Diakiese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Duffy at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Duffy threatens submissions; Marc Diakiese has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Marc Diakiese
Red Corner
VS
Joe Duffy
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
1500
Elo
1386
33
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marc Diakiese
oldest →
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22
L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23
W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23
latest
Joe DuffyL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Dustin Poirier · Jan 16
W
SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16
W
vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17
L
KOvs James Vick · Nov 17
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marc DiakieseMetricJoe Duffy
2.54
Strikes / min
2.68
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
52%
Strike defense
54%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
0.96
66%
Takedown defense
64%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10evenly matched on net striking-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1509 vs 1538Strikes27.4 vs 23.2Takedowns1.4 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form-0.4 vs -0.1
Marc DiakieseJoe Duffy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Marc Diakiese(10 fights)Joe Duffy(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +113.2|Blue -113.2
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -260.0|Blue +260.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marc DiakieseTargetJoe Duffy

By target zone

19
34% acc · 30%
Head
8
16% acc · 53%
22
88% acc · 35%
Body
3
50% acc · 20%
22
88% acc · 35%
Leg
4
100% acc · 27%

By position

55
59% acc · 87%
Distance
14
24% acc · 93%
6
67% acc · 10%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 7%
2
67% acc · 3%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Marc Diakiese rounds
0
even
0
Joe Duffy rounds
Round 1Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:08
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:16Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control1:56
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 3Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control2:24
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
63 / 106
Sig Strikes
15 / 60
58.7%
Sig Str %
24.7%
80 / 125
Total Strikes
24 / 71
3 / 4
TDs
1 / 3
75%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:28
Ctrl Time
0:35

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Duffy7 / 247 / 241 / 20
1Marc Diakiese25 / 4125 / 410 / 00
2Joe Duffy4 / 219 / 270 / 00
2Marc Diakiese18 / 3322 / 372 / 20
3Joe Duffy4 / 158 / 200 / 10
3Marc Diakiese20 / 3233 / 471 / 20

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Joe Duffy

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8