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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Marc Diakiese won · U-DEC R3
Elo1500
Elo1492
Damir Hadzovic

Marc DiakiesevsDamir HadzovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Marc Diakiese won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marc Diakiese wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Marc Diakiese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marc Diakiese at -435 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marc Diakiese has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marc Diakiese
Red Corner
VS
Damir Hadzovic
Blue Corner
-435
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+350
(22%)
1500
Elo
1492
33
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marc Diakiese
oldest →
L
SUBvs Rafael Alves · Nov 21
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22
L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23
W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23
latest
Damir Hadzovic
oldest →
W
KOvs Polo Reyes · Feb 19
L
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 19
L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Mar 20
W
vs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 21
L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Feb 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marc DiakieseMetricDamir Hadzovic
2.54
Strikes / min
3.34
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
52%
Strike defense
59%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
0.91
66%
Takedown defense
34%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1524 vs 1510Strikes2.5 vs 3.4Takedowns3.3 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.20Form0.1 vs 0.5
Marc DiakieseDamir Hadzovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Marc Diakiese(10 fights)Damir Hadzovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.4|Blue -7.4
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -273.0|Blue +273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marc DiakieseTargetDamir Hadzovic

By target zone

8
32% acc · 62%
Head
3
43% acc · 60%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0% acc
5
100% acc · 38%
Leg
2
100% acc · 40%

By position

7
28% acc · 54%
Distance
5
50% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 15%
Clinch
0
4
80% acc · 31%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Marc Diakiese rounds
0
even
0
Damir Hadzovic rounds
Round 1Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns3
Control4:45
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns3
Control4:17
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control4:33
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
13 / 32
Sig Strikes
5 / 10
46%
Sig Str %
63.3%
78 / 111
Total Strikes
20 / 25
8 / 11
TDs
0 / 1
75.3%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
13:35
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Damir Hadzovic1 / 16 / 60 / 00
1Marc Diakiese2 / 323 / 293 / 30
2Damir Hadzovic2 / 510 / 130 / 10
2Marc Diakiese8 / 1919 / 343 / 50
3Damir Hadzovic2 / 44 / 60 / 00
3Marc Diakiese3 / 1036 / 482 / 30

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14

Damir Hadzovic

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10