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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Andrew Sanchez won · U-DEC R3
Elo1478
Marc-Andre Barriault
Elo1410

Marc-Andre BarriaultvsAndrew SanchezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Andrew Sanchez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fightervsAndrew Sanchez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Andrew Sanchez wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Andrew Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Sanchez at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marc-Andre Barriault is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Andrew Sanchez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Andrew Sanchez has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marc-Andre Barriault
Red Corner
VS
Andrew Sanchez
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
1478
Elo
1410
36
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marc-Andre BarriaultL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Jun 24
L
KOvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Nov 24
W
KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25
L
vs Shara Magomedov · Jul 25
L
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 26
latest
Andrew SanchezL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Markus Perez · Aug 18
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 19
W
KOvs Wellington Turman · Aug 20
L
KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Jan 21
L
KOvs Bruno Silva · Oct 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marc-Andre BarriaultMetricAndrew Sanchez
5.65
Strikes / min
4.30
5.94
Strikes absorbed / min
5.10
49%
Strike defense
50%
0.34
TDs / 15 min
2.55
68%
Takedown defense
100%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1513Strikes— vs 67.4Takedowns— vs 2.6Sub Atts— vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.3
Marc-Andre BarriaultAndrew Sanchez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)Andrew Sanchez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +67.9|Blue -67.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +47.3|Blue -47.3
Grappler Score
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marc-Andre BarriaultTargetAndrew Sanchez

By target zone

55
48% acc · 80%
Head
44
39% acc · 61%
12
86% acc · 17%
Body
21
81% acc · 29%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
7
70% acc · 10%

By position

35
41% acc · 51%
Distance
54
43% acc · 75%
29
74% acc · 42%
Clinch
12
75% acc · 17%
5
100% acc · 7%
Ground
6
86% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Marc-Andre Barriault rounds
0
even
2
Andrew Sanchez rounds
Round 1Andrew Sanchez edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:45Control
Round 2Marc-Andre Barriault edged it
Sig. strikes46
Takedowns0
Control0:05
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Round 3Andrew Sanchez edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
69 / 130
Sig Strikes
72 / 148
49.7%
Sig Str %
50%
76 / 137
Total Strikes
102 / 181
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 8
0%
TD %
23.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
6:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andrew Sanchez18 / 4130 / 551 / 20
1Marc-Andre Barriault10 / 2214 / 260 / 00
2Andrew Sanchez38 / 8139 / 820 / 10
2Marc-Andre Barriault46 / 8146 / 810 / 10
3Andrew Sanchez16 / 2633 / 441 / 50
3Marc-Andre Barriault13 / 2716 / 300 / 00

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17

Andrew Sanchez

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10