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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Mara Romero Borella won · S-DEC R3

Elo1389

Elo1477

Mara Romero BorellavsTaila SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Mara Romero Borella won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMara Romero Borella: Well-roundedvsTaila Santos: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mara Romero Borella wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Mara Romero Borella wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mara Romero Borella at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mara Romero Borella enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Mara Romero Borella has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Taila Santos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mara Romero Borella

Red Corner

Taila Santos

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1389

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mara Romero BorellaL5 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 18

KOvs Lauren Murphy · Aug 19

vs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 20

SUBvs Cortney Casey · May 20

SUBvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Sep 20

latest

Taila SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gillian Robertson · Dec 20

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Sep 21

SUBvs Joanne Wood · Nov 21

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Jun 22

vs Erin Blanchfield · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mara Romero BorellaMetricTaila Santos

2.54

Strikes / min

3.39

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

71%

Strike defense

58%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

2.00

66%

Takedown defense

86%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mara Romero BorellaTaila Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mara Romero Borella(8 fights)Taila Santos(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -88.0|Blue +88.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mara Romero BorellaTargetTaila Santos

By target zone

22% acc · 48%

Head

25% acc · 47%

78% acc · 24%

Body

50% acc · 28%

80% acc · 28%

Leg

82% acc · 25%

By position

24% acc · 52%

Distance

30% acc · 75%

56% acc · 17%

Clinch

82% acc · 25%

75% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mara Romero Borella rounds

even

Taila Santos rounds

Round 1Mara Romero Borella edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:17

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 2Mara Romero Borella edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:39

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 3Taila Santos edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 83

Sig Strikes

36 / 100

42.3%

Sig Str %

39.7%

84 / 140

Total Strikes

57 / 123

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:56

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Taila Santos	2 / 5	8 / 11	1 / 1	2
1	Mara Romero Borella	11 / 17	36 / 42	1 / 1	0
2	Taila Santos	9 / 19	24 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Mara Romero Borella	6 / 15	35 / 45	1 / 2	0
3	Taila Santos	25 / 76	25 / 76	0 / 0	0
3	Mara Romero Borella	12 / 51	13 / 53	0 / 2	0

Mara Romero Borella

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Taila Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7