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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1395

Manvel GamburyanvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupManvel Gamburyan: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at -540 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Manvel Gamburyan has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Manvel Gamburyan

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

+460

(18%)

Vegas Odds

-540

(84%)

1358

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manvel GamburyanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cole Miller · Aug 13

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Sep 14

vs Scott Jorgensen · Jul 15

KOvs John Dodson · Apr 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Nov 16

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manvel GamburyanMetricNik Lentz

2.13

Strikes / min

3.44

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

55%

Strike defense

50%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

3.30

69%

Takedown defense

43%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manvel GamburyanNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manvel Gamburyan(9 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.4|Blue +36.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manvel GamburyanTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

49% acc · 71%

Head

35% acc · 44%

63% acc · 18%

Body

83% acc · 37%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

91% acc · 19%

By position

36% acc · 36%

Distance

36% acc · 38%

82% acc · 64%

Clinch

74% acc · 48%

0% acc

Ground

70% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manvel Gamburyan rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:28Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:33

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:11Control

Round 3Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:47

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 52

Sig Strikes

52 / 99

52.7%

Sig Str %

52.3%

60 / 86

Total Strikes

90 / 141

1 / 2

TDs

4 / 16

50%

TD %

25.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

9:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	20 / 33	26 / 41	2 / 7	0
1	Manvel Gamburyan	6 / 17	17 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Nik Lentz	19 / 40	39 / 61	1 / 6	0
2	Manvel Gamburyan	8 / 16	15 / 23	1 / 1	0
3	Nik Lentz	13 / 26	25 / 39	1 / 3	0
3	Manvel Gamburyan	14 / 19	28 / 34	0 / 1	1

Manvel Gamburyan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22