Featherweight

3 Rounds

Manvel Gamburyan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1352

Manvel GamburyanvsMichihiro OmigawaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · Saturday, August 4, 2012Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Manvel Gamburyan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupManvel Gamburyan: WrestlervsMichihiro Omigawa: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Michihiro Omigawa wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Manvel Gamburyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michihiro Omigawa at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manvel Gamburyan has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Manvel Gamburyan

Red Corner

Michihiro Omigawa

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1358

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manvel GamburyanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nik Lentz · May 14

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Sep 14

vs Scott Jorgensen · Jul 15

KOvs John Dodson · Apr 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Nov 16

latest

Michihiro Omigawa

oldest →

vs Chad Mendes · Feb 11

vs Darren Elkins · Jun 11

vs Jason Young · Nov 11

vs Iuri Alcantara · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manvel GamburyanMetricMichihiro Omigawa

2.13

Strikes / min

2.01

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

55%

Strike defense

64%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

1.19

69%

Takedown defense

49%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70evenly matched on net striking-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manvel GamburyanMichihiro Omigawa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manvel Gamburyan(9 fights)Michihiro Omigawa(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.9|Blue -6.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manvel GamburyanTargetMichihiro Omigawa

By target zone

38% acc · 71%

Head

39% acc · 73%

70% acc · 13%

Body

80% acc · 10%

89% acc · 15%

Leg

58% acc · 17%

By position

44% acc · 90%

Distance

42% acc · 90%

63% acc · 10%

Clinch

80% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manvel Gamburyan rounds

even

Michihiro Omigawa rounds

Round 1Michihiro Omigawa edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Manvel Gamburyan edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control3:03

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Manvel Gamburyan edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns4

Control1:36

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 116

Sig Strikes

41 / 94

46.7%

Sig Str %

45%

58 / 125

Total Strikes

71 / 127

6 / 12

TDs

0 / 2

37.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:39

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michihiro Omigawa	14 / 40	14 / 40	0 / 0
1	Manvel Gamburyan	19 / 37	19 / 37	0 / 1
2	Michihiro Omigawa	8 / 16	25 / 33	0 / 0
2	Manvel Gamburyan	13 / 25	17 / 32	2 / 6
3	Michihiro Omigawa	19 / 38	32 / 54	0 / 2
3	Manvel Gamburyan	20 / 54	22 / 56	4 / 5

Manvel Gamburyan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Michihiro Omigawa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5