Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Nunes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1490

Manvel GamburyanvsDiego NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · Friday, December 30, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Nunes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupManvel Gamburyan: WrestlervsDiego Nunes: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Diego Nunes wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Diego Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Nunes at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Manvel Gamburyan

Red Corner

Diego Nunes

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1358

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manvel GamburyanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nik Lentz · May 14

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Sep 14

vs Scott Jorgensen · Jul 15

KOvs John Dodson · Apr 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Nov 16

latest

Diego Nunes

oldest →

vs Mike Brown · Jan 11

vs Kenny Florian · Jun 11

vs Dennis Siver · Apr 12

vs Bart Palaszewski · Oct 12

vs Nik Lentz · Jan 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manvel GamburyanMetricDiego Nunes

2.13

Strikes / min

2.72

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

55%

Strike defense

58%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

1.18

69%

Takedown defense

65%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manvel GamburyanDiego Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manvel Gamburyan(9 fights)Diego Nunes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -131.7|Blue +131.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -15.0|Blue +15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manvel GamburyanTargetDiego Nunes

By target zone

26% acc · 63%

Head

20% acc · 21%

50% acc · 16%

Body

59% acc · 31%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

80% acc · 48%

By position

18% acc · 37%

Distance

43% acc · 81%

60% acc · 47%

Clinch

73% acc · 19%

100% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manvel Gamburyan rounds

even

Diego Nunes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:52

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Manvel Gamburyan edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:15

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Diego Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:25

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 56

Sig Strikes

42 / 91

35.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

25 / 63

Total Strikes

42 / 91

2 / 17

TDs

0 / 0

13.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:32

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Diego Nunes	13 / 25	13 / 25	0 / 0
1	Manvel Gamburyan	8 / 15	8 / 15	1 / 5
2	Diego Nunes	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0
2	Manvel Gamburyan	6 / 18	12 / 25	1 / 5
3	Diego Nunes	19 / 46	19 / 46	0 / 0
3	Manvel Gamburyan	5 / 23	5 / 23	0 / 7

Manvel Gamburyan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Diego Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6